Episode Summary
- Perception is reality. And when asked people believe that density contributes to environmental issues, traffic, and crime. When the reality is that decades of poor planning, and a car centric culture have led to issues correlated with density.
- The younger people are the more likely they are to be in favor of supporting and desiring modest density improvements to communities (aka the building of missing middle housing) to help with affordable housing.
- Homebuyers desperate to join the game are reshuffling the US emerging real estate market index as they search for a home and a place where the cost of living is more affordable.
Links To Sources
Perception on high density related to environment, traffic, and crime (4 min read)
84% of homeowners support "modest densification" according to Zillow (3 min read)
Hottest real estate markets trending toward lower cost of living (paywall possible, 4 min read)
Episode Transcript
Hey everyone. I’m Kyle Gulau and on this show, patterns of development, we take less than 10 minutes each week to deconstruct what's going on in real estate, architecture, and urban planing.
And this week let's cover some data. Some sentiment. Some perspective.
In a recent poll, YouGov asked 1,000 Americans a couple of questions related to density and it's impact on the environment and crime. According to the poll, the results show that most Americans, including most of those who live in cities, believe that high density is not only worse for the environment, but also a driver of traffic congestion and crime.
Which is weird. To me. Because the last 62 episode of this show have been trending toward how density provides options outside of burning fossil fuels to get around. That's the environment side of things, I suppose I don't really focus on crime very much...
Either way perception is reality. 1,000 people isn't the biggest sample size. Either way, let's talk about what else YouGov uncovered in their survey:
3 in 4 Americans believe it's better for the environment if houses are built farther apart.
3 in 5 Americans say that higher density developments create more traffic.
It'd be interesting to have a follow up question in the survey on how those people commuted to work. My guess would be that they drive. Also the age was not reported in these survey results. We'll circle back to that factor age in a moment.
62% of those surveyed believe that densely populated areas have higher crime rates. As I mentioned I don't really look at/talk about crime on this show. A quick internet search reveals a couple of sources that indicate that property crime is higher in cities because..well...theres more stuff to damage and take. But crimes of violence don't have as strong of a correlation...
If you look at rural vs. urban respondents, rural areas clocked in at 72% believing that density was a contributor to crime. People who identify as Republicans tallied 76%.
Again age wasn't collected or reported by YouGov and leads to our next survey which did collect age. Online real estate company Zillow did a survey of 12,000 people across 26 major metropolitan areas in the United States and learned that 73% of homeowners are in favor of "modest densification" and 84% of renters are in favor of "modest densification."
Modest densification is that sweet sweet missing middle housing that provides stealth density...the duplexes, ADUs, triplex, etc.
The younger the survey respondent was the more likely they were to be in favor of missing middle housing in their community. Baby Boomers where around 54%, Gen x: 71%, Millennials 79%, and Gen z 78%.
So here we are. We've got one survey that has 600-700 people out of a thousand saying that they believe that density contributes to environmental problems, traffic problems, and crime.
Then we have a survey of 12,000 people of which around 10000 of them would like to see modest densification occur in their communities to help with affordable housing.
This is a great moment to discuss confirmation bias. You can find anything you'd like on the internet to confirm your view point. I'm still not even sure what to make of these two conflicting data points other than the research I've previously done personally and shared on this show. Which of course makes me nervous because I could be falling victim to my own confirmation bias. Yikes...
Last nugget from the Zillow study 61% of respondents agreed with the statement “having more affordable housing in my community is more important than free parking for myself.”
Boomers agreed only 47% of the time. While Gen Z agreed with that statement 72% of the time.
On an affordable housing note - an article in the Wall Street journal by Nicole Friedman shows that less expensive cities with strong local economies top the "Emerging Housing Market Index" in Spring 2022.
To quote the article, "Fast-rising housing prices have pushed buyers from expensive coastal cities into cheaper housing markets in recent years. Expanded remote-work opportunities and a search for different lifestyles during the Covid-19 pandemic have accelerated the trend.
The migration is poised to continue as home prices set new highs and rising mortgage-interest rates increase borrowing costs for home buyers, economists say. The average 30-year mortgage rate jumped from 3.1% at the end of 2021 to 5.0% by mid-April, adding hundreds of dollars to the typical monthly mortgage payment."
This reshuffling of the index shows that home buyers are searching for deals to get a home rather than staying in the neighborhoods they're currently in.
Top of the list. You won't guess it. Think you got it?
Rapid City, South Dakota. Is number 1. Some popular neighborhood names continue to populate the list between 2-6: Santa Cruz, Sarasota, Santa Rosa, Naples, Boulder. Next surprise...at least for me Coeur D'Alene in Idaho. It's all sunshine, sunbelt. Then Elkhart and Fort Wayne Indian have jumped in and round out the top 15.
Which leads us to our patterns of the week:
- Perception is reality. And when asked people believe that density contributes to environmental issues, traffic, and crime. When the reality is that decades of poor planning, and a car centric culture have led to issues correlated with density.
- The younger people are the more likely they are to be in favor of supporting and desiring modest density improvements to communities (aka the building of missing middle housing) to help with affordable housing.
- Homebuyers desperate to join the game are reshuffling the US emerging real estate market index as they search for a home and a place where the cost of living is more affordable.
That's all for this week. Talk to you soon!
