Episode Summary

  • The pandemic bike boom is real. Specifically, e-bike sales are up 145% from 2019 to 2020. This is double the rate of classic bikes and double the rate of electric car sales.
  • Making better buildings to decarbonize your city might be the next trend in real estate sector economics. Ithaca, NY is the first to move with a $100m investment in an effort to decarbonize their footprint.
  • Housing is a supply and demand problem. Phoenix is yet another city considering how to leverage unused supply to help lower demand and increase affordability, with, you guessed it using the patterns of development.

Popularity of e-bikes isn't slowing down (3 min read - paywall possible)

“The notorious MUTCD..." (6 min read)

1st US city to begin decarbonization efforts (8 mins read)

Single-family rental income continues to grow (3 min read - paywall possible)

Another city looking at vacant retail to address housing shortage (4 min read)

Transcript

Hey Everybody, it's Kyle. Every day I search for patterns in real estate development and urban planning. The goal is to deconstruct what others are doing, other cities, other developers, other architects, other builders, so that we can identify key principles (patterns) and apply them in our community.

My goal for you is that you might see your city a little differently and feel a little more informed for that next conversation or presentation you might have.

First up, an article from the New York Times by John Surico, titled, "The popularity of e-bikes isn't slowing down."

First of all, I want to quote this section by Mr. Surcio, "Modern life is peppered with moments of discovery around mobility: the first car drive as a teenager; the first trip on a train, plane or bus, watching the world from a window seat." As we grow up, we don't tend to, or at least I haven't thought about mobility and its connection to freedom. A fun, nerdy, transportation aside.

Ok. Some stuff you can use:

  • The pandemic bike boom is real. Specifically, e-bike sales are up 145% from 2019 to 2020. This is double the rate of classic bikes, according to research firm NPD.
  • Estimates vary but experts speculate that bought about 500,000, half a million bikes. This compared to 231,000 all-electric cards in 2020.
  • Consulting firm Deloitte has projected that between 2020 and 2023, 130 million e-bikes would be sold worldwide.

This means that e-bikes are the world's best-selling electric vehicle today and will continue to be through 2023. Sorry Rivian, although they did just get valued at $70 billion. That...is a different show.

We've talked about electric cars quite a bit. Recently considering the infrastructure to charge cars on the curb and the conflict that could present itself with the reduction of parking minimums.

This adds a new wrinkle to the equation. Bike storage and bike charging. This of course is a more human-scaled problem. More carbon-neutral too.

Speaking of carbon-neutral, COP26, is in full swing, the global environmental conference...gathering. Far from Glasgow, Ithaca, New York's council voted unanimously to approve full decarbonization of its buildings.

According to Eric Rosenbaum with CNBC, this makes Ithaca the first U.S. city to begin operation on a 100% decarbonization plan. In the summer of 2021, Ithaca lined up 100m in private financing to support building energy efficiency with partner BlocPower.

The strategy here is to not rely on government money but to combine private capital with incentives from the federal government.

What makes Ithaca worth keeping an eye on is its location in the NorthEast of the United States. Where buildings are exposed to hot, humid summers and cold winters. This means that insulation is huge. Ithaca also faces the challenge of most of their housing stock is older, so we're looking at remodeling projects rather than more efficient new builds with the latest materials and practices.

Last up, the City of Phoenix is considering how they might use vacant retail spaces to help solve their housing problem. Phoenix has double the amount of retail per capita from the nationwide average.

At the same time, the city estimates that they are 163,000 units short. This lack of supply has driven up demand. And that demand equals home prices at regular levels.

So city staff in Phoenix are discussing with elected officials 3 options:

  • Increase height and density allowed for residential redevelopment (aka up zone)
  • Allow businesses with special permits to locate in commercial areas.
  • Allow other types of uses not currently allowed in commercial corridors. This would include microbreweries, distilleries, and data centers. (They should add last-mile e-commerce infrastructure to that list)
  • Reduce the minimum amount of parking spaces commercial properties must maintain.

BOOOOOOMM. Check out those patterns. It's almost like they've been listening to the podcast. I love it. I love it.

Yes. Up-zone to get more density in existing residential neighborhoods and reduce parking minimums so that you don't take up your most valuable asset (land) with car storage!

Last thing, and related to Phoenix's situation, and article in the Wall Street Journal, "Building and Renting Single-Family Homes Is Top-Performing Investment." This article continues to show that when you're looking to build or buy a home you're not competing with Mr. and Mrs. Smith. You're completing against Smith Development, LLC.

Many traditional homebuilders have begun to shift their model from building houses to building rental houses and giant investment firms continue to pile cash into the market so they can add the 8% average return to their portfolio. According to Brad Hunter at Hunter Housing Economics investors have poured $30billion in debt and equity into the single-family home sector in 2021.

That's a lot of money and leads us to this week's patterns:

  • The pandemic bike boom is real. Specifically, e-bike sales are up 145% from 2019 to 2020. This is double the rate of classic bikes and double the rate of electric car sales.
  • Making better buildings to decarbonize your city might be the next trend in real estate sector economics. Ithaca, NY is the first to move with a $100m investment in an effort to decarbonize their footprint.
  • Housing is a supply and demand problem. Phoenix is yet another city considering how to leverage unused supply to help lower demand and increase affordability, with, you guessed it using the patterns of development.

Talk to you all soon